Papers with probability estimation

4 papers
Word Surprisal Correlates with Sentential Contradiction in LLMs (2026.eacl-long)

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Challenge: Existing models are primarily optimized for task-specific performance, lacking well-defined objectives or linguistic grounding.
Approach: They propose a token-to-word decoding algorithm that extends theoretically grounded probability estimation to open-vocabulary settings.
Outcome: The proposed algorithm can localize sentence-level inconsistency at the word level, establishing a quantitative link between lexical uncertainty and sentential semantics.
On the Encoder-Decoder Incompatibility in Variational Text Modeling and Beyond (2020.acl-main)

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Challenge: Existing work has shown that the optimization of variational autoencoders suffers from the posterior collapse problem.
Approach: They propose a variational autoencoder that couples a VAE model with a deterministic autoencoding model and improves the parameters via weight sharing and decoder signal matching.
Outcome: The proposed model improves on benchmark datasets and improves diversity of dialogue generation.
Revisiting Source Context in Nearest Neighbor Machine Translation (2023.emnlp-main)

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Challenge: Existing research does not explicitly consider the source context when retrieving similar examples .
Approach: They propose a method to improve neural machine translation via source context enhancement by integrating a source-aware distance calibration module.
Outcome: The proposed approach can be integrated with representative kNN-MT baselines and achieve significant performance improvements.
d-TreeRPO: Towards More Reliable Policy Optimization for Diffusion Language Models (2026.acl-long)

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Challenge: Existing RL methods suffer from reliability bottlenecks due to reward sparsity and intractable computations . d-TreeRPO provides fine-grained and verifiable step-wise reward signals .
Approach: They propose a reliable reinforcement learning framework for diffusion large language models that leverages tree-structured rollouts and bottom-up advantage computation based on verifiable outcome rewards.
Outcome: The proposed framework outperforms baseline models and achieves significant improvements across reasoning benchmarks.

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